The Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth advance estimates for MY 2020/21 (Apr-Mar) and the corn production is now estimated at a record 31.51 MMT.

The country, without depleting its carryover or domestic usage much, can export upward of 4 MMT of corn. Indian corn exports dried up in past six years are already witnessing a surge.

In first five months of 2021, it has exported over 1.6 MMT of corn. Vietnam is the largest buyer in this period with 750 KMT of shipments; Bangladesh, Malaysia and Nepal feature in the next top importers.

Indian corn supplies can partially fill the gap created by poor Brazilian crop in rest of the 2021.

For 2021 crop, the country is reported to have planted 7.88 million hectares compared to 7.71 million last year. Timely monsoon rain in the country is likely to keep the yield curve higher. First glance of production estimate for 2021 crop will be released by Ministry in second half of September. We anticipate the maize crop in 2021/22 to be higher than 30 MMT again, with prospects of continued exports.

Rising global freights can make Indian corn cheaper in destinations like Indonesia, Taiwan, UAE and China; the countries, that are yet to show in Indian export numbers this season. Iran is a possible buyer of Indian corn, as the supplies will remain dry from Brazil for minimum 10 months.