Global wheat supply deficit widening

Global wheat supplies are dwindling once again. Taking cues from latest USDA data, major 8 exporters (AR, AU, CA, EU-27, KZ, RU, UA, US) are slated to ship 187 MMT of wheat in MY 2026/27, compared to 203 MMT last season. This includes 46 MMT from Russia and 13.5 MMT from Ukraine.

Given the shipment pace from Russia and Ukraine since the attacks on each other’s logistic infrastructure began, the month-on-month deficit is above 2.5 MMT. Even if there is a truce, the infrastructure will take a long time to get fully online and the monthly deficit will keep piling. In a scenario, where the truce remains a distant dream, wheat shipments from these two countries can drop to as low as 36 MMT (combined), a deficit of nearly 24 MMT from the current USDA estimates.

India can supply 5 MMT of its wheat to the international markets but the majors are not in a position to ship substantially more then the current USDA estimate.

Keep a tab on the developments in Russia and Ukraine and the movement through alternate routes, including European borders, Eastern ports and Baltic Sea ports.