Canada Wheat Production Set to Decline in 2026/27, While Carryover Stocks Support Supplies

Canada’s wheat production is projected to decline in the 2026/27 marketing year compared with the previous season, although substantial carryover stocks are expected to support overall availability. According to Statistics Canada (STC), total wheat production, including durum, is forecast at approximately 36.12 million tonnes (MMT), down from 40.56 MMT in 2025/26.

Non-durum wheat production is estimated at 29.7 MMT in 2026/27, compared with 33.26 MMT in the previous season. Similarly, durum wheat production is projected to decrease to 6.42 MMT from 7.30 MMT. The decline in overall output reflects lower production potential following changes in harvested area and crop yields.

Despite the anticipated reduction in production, Canada is expected to enter the new marketing year with substantial supplies. Carryover inventories from 2025/26 are likely to provide a buffer against lower output, helping maintain the country's export capacity and domestic market availability.

Statistics Canada's stocks report, as of July 31, 2026, recorded total wheat inventories of 6.65 MMT. These included 5.55 MMT of non-durum wheat and 1.10 MMT of durum. The stock levels indicate that Canada has considerable wheat supplies available at the beginning of the new marketing year.

Export demand will remain a key factor in determining Canada's wheat balance in 2026/27. Strong international demand could support shipments and gradually reduce available inventories, while slower exports may result in higher ending stocks.

Meanwhile, domestic consumption, including food, feed and industrial use, will also influence the pace of stock depletion. Any revisions to production estimates following harvest assessments could further alter the supply outlook.

Overall, Canada's wheat market is expected to remain adequately supplied in 2026/27 despite lower production. The combination of reduced output and substantial opening stocks will shape export availability, domestic supply and ending inventories throughout the marketing year.

Contact or subscribe to AgPulse Analytica for detailed information, along with deeper market insights and detailed analysis for informed decision-making.