Iran is emerging as one of the largest wheat importer. USDA maintains Iranian wheat production in MY 2020/21 at 13.5 MMT. IGC, in its latest report cut its production estimate to 11.5 MMT, down from previous figure of 14 MMT. At 11.5 MMT, it will be the worst crop since MY 2008/09. USDA had increased its estimate for Iranian wheat imports to 5.5 MMT in its Nov crop report. If materialised, it will be highest since MY 2014/15.

In the first four months of MY 2021/22 (Jul-Oct), wheat shipments to the country have totalled over 3 MMT, more than any of the five preceding years.

The import volume has remained robust since the start of 2021, while the country typically imports larger volume in the run of its harvest in April. Going by the history, the country may import larger volumes in Q1’2022, surpassing the marketing year USDA estimate of 5 MMT.