Countries in North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) are one of the most important blocs in global wheat trade and the local wheat crops in the region have been drier than normal this season.

Southern Tunisia, and Morocco are the hard-hit areas and the wheat imports can surge in MY 2022/23, if the domestic crops fail.

In the event of a crop failure akin to MY 2020/21, wheat import demand of the region will top 30 MMT. The depleted inventory at the end of MY 2021/22 and a poor harvest is a recipe for higher imports.

Keep an eye on the weather in the region.