South Australia Lentil Production Forecasts Diverge Sharply Between PIRSA and ABARES

On June 4, 2026, Primary Industries and Regions South Australia (PIRSA) released its first production outlook for the 2026/27 crop year, providing updated estimates for the state's grain sector.

According to PIRSA, South Australia's lentil production is expected to reach 846.4 thousand metric tonnes (KMT) in 2026/27. This estimate is substantially lower than the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecast of 1.18 million metric tonnes (MMT) for the same crop year. The difference of approximately 337 KMT highlights a significant divergence in production expectations between the two agencies.

The gap is not an isolated occurrence. In recent years, ABARES has consistently projected higher lentil production figures for South Australia compared with PIRSA's estimates. The persistence of this trend suggests differences in forecasting methodologies, assumptions regarding planted area and yields, or the timing of data collection and analysis.

Such discrepancies are closely watched by market participants, as production forecasts play a critical role in shaping price expectations, export projections, and supply outlooks. Farmers, traders, processors, and policymakers will need to monitor future revisions from both agencies to better assess the likely size of the 2026/27 lentil crop and its implications for domestic and international markets.

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