Which Pulse Has the Biggest Supply Risk in MY 2026/27?

According to AgPulse Analytica’s latest S&D updates, the global pulse market in MY 2026/27 is defined by sharp crop divergences. While some markets face multi-year surpluses, others are grappling with production drops, adverse weather, and geopolitical risks.

Across all major categories, Desi Chickpeas present the biggest supply risk and largest global deficit, followed closely by Peas.

MY 2026/27 Balance Sheet At a Glance

Key Takeaways & Substitution Factors

• Desi Chickpeas (Top Supply Risk):A 885,000 MT global deficit dominates the market. Depleted Indian reserves and poor soil moisture in Australia cap export capacity.
• Peas (High Volatility & Chickpea Substitution):Canadian pea output fell ~30% YoY. Crucially, as desi chickpea supplies remain constrained, yellow peas act as a direct demand substitute to bridge unmet chickpea needs in South Asia, intensifying pressure on the pea balance sheet.
• Lentils (Surplus Offset by Tur Deficits):Despite a global +282 kMT surplus marking its fourth year of excess, a severe shortfall in Indian pigeon pea (Tur) supply is driving cross-commodity substitution. Elevated Indian demand for lentils to cover Tur deficits helps absorb heavy global lentil inventories.

Conclusion: Desi chickpeas carry the highest supply risk in MY 2026/27, with yellow peas and lentils absorbing significant demand spillover as key substitutes for scarce chickpea and pigeon pea stocks.