USDA will be releasing two major reports today at noon EDT; Prospective Planting & Grain Stocks.
The soy-corn ratio can have an impact on US spring acreage, as farmers may adjust their planting decisions based on the relative profitability of soybeans and corn.
When the soy-corn ratio is high, meaning that soybeans are more expensive relative to corn, it may incentivize farmers to plant more soybeans. This is because they can potentially earn more revenue from soybeans per acre than from corn. As a result, a high soy-corn ratio may lead to an increase in soybean acreage in the following spring.
Conversely, when the soy-corn ratio is low, meaning that corn is more expensive relative to soybeans, it may encourage farmers to plant more corn instead. This is because they can potentially earn more revenue from corn per acre than from soybeans. As a result, a low soy-corn ratio may lead to an increase in corn acreage in the following spring.
A ratio between 2.28 and 2.35 is considered neutral for the decision, while a figure higher than 2.35 has historically led to increase in soy acres and number below 2.28 resulted in increased corn acres. The historical numbers indicate a high probability of this theory.
|
Average Feb Prices |
Soy/corn ratio |
Acreage |
Floor price change |
Acreage change |
||||||
|
Corn |
Soybean |
Corn |
Soybean |
Corn |
Soybean |
Corn |
Soybean |
Combined |
||
|
2023 |
591 |
1,376 |
2.327 |
? |
? |
0.2 % |
(4.0)% |
? |
? |
? |
|
2022 |
590 |
1,433 |
2.429 |
88,579 |
87,450 |
28.7 % |
20.7 % |
(5.0)% |
0.3 % |
(2.45)% |
|
2021 |
458 |
1,187 |
2.588 |
93,252 |
87,195 |
18.1 % |
29.4 % |
2.9 % |
4.6 % |
3.70 % |
|
2020 |
388 |
917 |
2.363 |
90,652 |
83,354 |
(2.8)% |
(3.8)% |
1.0 % |
9.5 % |
4.92 % |
|
2019 |
400 |
954 |
2.387 |
89,745 |
76,100 |
0.9 % |
(6.2)% |
1.0 % |
(14.7)% |
(6.85)% |
|
2018 |
396 |
1,016 |
2.567 |
88,871 |
89,167 |
0.1 % |
(0.2)% |
(1.4)% |
(1.1)% |
(1.27)% |
|
2017 |
396 |
1,019 |
2.574 |
90,167 |
90,162 |
2.4 % |
15.1 % |
(4.1)% |
8.0 % |
1.62 % |
|
2016 |
386 |
885 |
2.292 |
94,004 |
83,453 |
(6.9)% |
(9.0)% |
6.8 % |
1.0 % |
3.97 % |
|
2015 |
415 |
973 |
2.346 |
88,019 |
82,660 |
(10.2)% |
(14.4)% |
(2.8)% |
(0.8)% |
(1.85)% |
|
2014 |
462 |
1,136 |
2.461 |
90,597 |
83,296 |
(18.3)% |
(11.7)% |
(5.0)% |
8.4 % |
0.99 % |
|
2013 |
565 |
1,287 |
2.277 |
95,365 |
76,820 |
(0.4)% |
2.6 % |
(2.0)% |
(0.5)% |
(1.32)% |
|
2012 |
568 |
1,255 |
2.210 |
97,291 |
77,198 |
(5.5)% |
(7.0)% |
5.8 % |
2.9 % |
4.50 % |
|
2011 |
601 |
1,349 |
2.244 |
91,936 |
75,046 |
50.9 % |
46.2 % |
4.2 % |
(3.0)% |
0.84 % |
|
2010 |
399 |
923 |
2.316 |
88,192 |
77,404 |
(1.3)% |
4.9 % |
2.1 % |
(0.1)% |
1.08 % |
|
2009 |
404 |
880 |
2.179 |
86,382 |
77,451 |
(25.2)% |
(34.2)% |
0.5 % |
2.3 % |
1.32 % |
|
2008 |
540 |
1,336 |
2.477 |
85,982 |
75,718 |
32.9 % |
65.2 % |
(8.1)% |
17.0 % |
2.17 % |
|
2007 |
406 |
809 |
1.991 |
93,527 |
64,741 |
56.7 % |
30.8 % |
19.4 % |
(14.3)% |
2.87 % |
|
2006 |
259 |
618 |
2.386 |
78,327 |
75,522 |
12.0 % |
11.8 % |
(4.2)% |
4.8 % |
0.02 % |
|
2005 |
232 |
553 |
2.389 |
81,779 |
72,032 |
(18.1)% |
(17.6)% |
1.1 % |
(4.2)% |
(1.49)% |
|
2004 |
283 |
672 |
2.377 |
80,929 |
75,208 |
16.7 % |
27.8 % |
3.0 % |
2.5 % |
2.72 % |
|
2003 |
242 |
526 |
2.172 |
78,603 |
73,404 |
4.3 % |
17.0 % |
(0.4)% |
(0.8)% |
(0.56)% |
|
2002 |
232 |
450 |
1.936 |
78,894 |
73,963 |
(5.8)% |
(3.7)% |
4.2 % |
(0.2)% |
2.06 % |
|
2001 |
246 |
467 |
1.894 |
75,702 |
74,075 |
(1.8)% |
(12.3)% |
(4.8)% |
(0.3)% |
(2.63)% |
For MY 2023/24, we expect US farmers to plant 90 million acres of corn and 88 million acres for soybean.
It's important to note that the soy-corn ratio is just one of many factors that farmers consider when making planting decisions, and they may also take into account factors such as weather, soil conditions, and market trends. However, the soy-corn ratio can provide a useful signal for farmers as they plan for the upcoming growing season.
